Altcoin Season Awakens, Bitcoin Dominance, and the Meme Coin Supercycle
it's finally happening...
The total crypto market cap, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is breaking out. We’re entering the early stages of altcoin season, with parallels to where we were in the previous cycle. Zoom out, and it’s clear: this is just getting started.
This newsletter explores the bigger picture, focusing on the macro moves and the micro stories shaping the market. From Bitcoin dominance and altcoin narratives to the headline-grabbing DOG—the meme coin on Bitcoin, there’s plenty to unpack.
Let’s dive in.
Altcoin Market: The Cycle Setup
We’re seeing the first signs of a breakout in the total altcoin market cap, following months of consolidation. Bitcoin dominance remains high but is showing bearish divergence on the weekly RSI, a strong historical indicator of altcoin season. If patterns hold, December could mark the tipping point for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin.
While it’s essential to stay cautious amid volatility, the setup for altcoins like ADA and DOG is compelling. Both are positioned to play significant roles in this bull market.
Bitcoin’s Momentum: The Macro View
The narratives surrounding Bitcoin are unprecedented:
Bitcoin Reserve Act: Senator Cynthia Lummis’ proposal for the U.S. to acquire 1 million BTC over five years could cement Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
Global Ripple Effect: Trump’s pro-crypto stance may prompt other nations, like China, to revisit their crypto policies to stay competitive.
Institutional Onboarding: ETFs and stablecoin innovations are making headlines as pathways for capital to flow into the crypto ecosystem.
Bitcoin’s technical setup suggests room for significant upside, with speculative targets in the $120,000 to $150,000 range by 2025.
Cardano (ADA): Quiet Strength in a Bull Market
Cardano has emerged as a foundational blockchain for trustless DeFi and governance systems, with recent speculation linking ADA to federal blockchain initiatives under the incoming U.S. administration.
Key developments:
Charles Hoskinson’s Role: Advisory support for Trump’s crypto policies.
Partnership Potential: Rumors of collaborations with SpaceX and integration into voting and identity verification systems.
Index Inclusion: ADA is now a top-five component in the NYSE’s crypto index fund.
Chart Analysis: ADA is consolidating after a strong breakout, hovering around $0.80.
The structure remains bullish, but dips and consolidation are expected in the short term.
DOG: The Meme Coin Supercycle Leader
DOG, the first meme coin on Bitcoin, is rewriting the rules of meme coin economics. Unlike typical meme coins reliant on influencer-driven hype, DOG’s free and fair distribution makes it a standout.
Why DOG Matters:
Bitcoin Integration: DOG leverages Bitcoin’s security and scalability, making it a unique player in the meme coin market.
Community Power: The DOG army is driving unprecedented engagement. Kraken’s announcement of DOG perpetual futures garnered 5,000+ likes, far outpacing other listings.
Upside Potential: DOG is hovering around $500M market cap, but comparisons to Dogecoin and Shiba Inu suggest 10x to 50x upside is within reach this cycle.
Bull Case:
If DOG captures just 3% of Bitcoin’s market cap, it would reach a $52B valuation.
At 9% of Bitcoin’s market cap—similar to Shiba Inu’s peak relative to Ethereum—DOG could hit $550B, representing a 1,000x gain.
Chart Analysis:
DOG’s current market cap mirrors Dogecoin’s position post-2020 elections. A conservative target of $10B (20x from today) aligns with historical meme coin trends, while $25B (50x) remains plausible if tier-one spot listings materialize.
Final Thoughts: Stay Grounded Amid the Green
The crypto market is in its early stages of a bull run, but it’s essential to remain disciplined. As portfolios grow, take a moment to reflect on your goals. Remember, markets move in cycles, and even the strongest assets face pullbacks.
Key takeaways:
Plan your exits: Avoid the trap of holding through every cycle peak.
Focus on fundamentals: Meme coins like DOG and layer-1 ecosystems like Cardano are rooted in narratives that could sustain value beyond the hype.
Stay humble: The journey is long, and overconfidence can lead to mistakes.
Let me know your thoughts, and be sure to subscribe for more insights. Together, we’ll navigate this bull market, one step at a time.
Thanks and God Bless,
Dan
Hi Dan. I'm holding and staking some DOT from way back(just unstaked about a week ago..) along with ADA and DOG and bunch of others but still about 85% BTC. Will DOT have it's day or will the nuclear FUD assault across the cryptoverse suppress it? I, personally, am looking for a 2-5x vs BTC and the reason I ask is that DOT/BTC has not made a move yet, as opposed to ADA/BTC which already made a huge move. Idk if you have an opinion on DOT but it's a top coin so many people are probably curious as well.. Thanks in advance!! - K