Laying the Groundwork
Let's start by briefly looking at the total crypto market cap. I won't dive deep into analysis here—I've covered this extensively in the past—but we’ve been tracking this moment for years.
Purple Line Altcoin Season:
Last cycle’s altcoin season saw Bitcoin dominance start falling.
Currently, altcoins are testing the previous all-time high from the last cycle.
Historically, after altcoin season begins, Bitcoin dominance declines, and altcoins break previous all-time highs.
This brings us to a key point: the timeframe for all-time highs to bull market peaks, which has ranged from 250 to 300 days in past cycles. While this is not a guaranteed timeline, I’m personally targeting October 2025 as a potential bull market end.
Creating a Plan
The Takeaway: Everyone’s plan will look different.
Example:
Some people are already taking profits after surviving a brutal bear market.
This is about creating a visualization exercise for making better exit decisions.
Let’s Dive In:
For this example, I'll use ADA and DOG as my top coins, along with Ethereum for a general perspective.
ADA Speculative Exit Strategy Demo And Example
Starting Point:
Assume 100,000 ADA with a speculative high of $5–$10 (realistic) and a potential $500 billion market cap (stretch goal).
Profit-Taking Example:
Sell 10,000 ADA at $1.50 = $15,000 (after the bear market, some early profits).
Sell another 10,000 ADA at $3.50 = $35,000 (post all-time high).
Continue scaling out until $5–$7, leaving a sizable stack for potential parabolic moves.
Outcome:
Sold $140,000 worth of ADA, keeping 40,000 ADA for potential upside.
If ADA hits $10, this remaining stack is worth $400,000.
DOG Speculative Exit Strategy Demo And Example
Starting Point:
Assume 5 million DOG with speculative tier-one listings pushing the market cap to $10–25 billion (realistic) and $70 billion (stretch goal).
Profit-Taking Example:
Sell 1 million DOG at $3 billion market cap = $30,000 profit.
Sell 1.5 million DOG at $10 billion market cap = $150,000 profit.
Hold 1 million DOG for parabolic moves (e.g., $30 billion market cap = $300,000).
Outcome:
Total profits of $580,000 with 1 million DOG remaining for potential upside.
Ethereum Speculative Exit Strategy Demo And Example
Starting Point:
Assume 10 ETH, currently at $3,800, with speculative highs of $18,000–$20,000.
Profit-Taking Example:
Sell 2 ETH at $6,500 = $13,000 profit.
Sell 3 ETH at $10,000 = $30,000 profit.
Hold 3 ETH for a potential parabolic move to $20,000 = $60,000 value.
Outcome:
Total profits of $73,000, keeping 3 ETH for additional upside.
Key Takeaways
Flexibility Is Key: Plans should be adaptable to market conditions.
Conservative Ranges: Focus on realistic exit points instead of trying to sell at the top.
Preparation Is Mental: The exercise itself—thinking through scenarios—is more important than the specific numbers.
The Risks
We might not see a parabolic bull market. Staying mindful of market risks is essential, as there’s no guarantee of upward movement.
Final Thoughts
This is my thought process and approach to exit strategies. I hope it’s helpful as you create your own. Let me know in the comments what your exit plan looks like!
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God bless.
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